The hottest natural rubber has a dream for seven y

Natural rubber: a dream of seven years goes to bear

if we can't grasp the trend direction of rubber price in the early stage, then during the domestic National Day holiday, the international market told the market with a brutal slump that the bear market of natural rubber is coming

during the National Day holiday, the international rubber price showed an avalanche due to the negative impact of the collective slump in the global commodity market; After the end of the long holiday and the opening of the market, the Shanghai Jiao futures market in the inner market continued to fall by the limit. As of Tuesday, there had been three limit plates in Shanghai Jiao, with the decline ranges of 4%, 6% and 6% respectively. The futures prices of each contract have returned to around 17000 yuan. According to the trading rules, Shanghai Jiaotong will be closed for a day on Wednesday for discussion

at present, the natural rubber market at home and abroad continues to be shrouded in the shadow of a sharp decline. During the peak period of rubber production, inventories are overstocked, and the surrounding financial markets are volatile. Synthetic rubber, which directly promotes the formation of Japanese rubber futures, also has a sharp decline trend. Surrounding negative factors continue to emerge, forming a continuous downward impact on the rubber price

in the process of falling down, the glue price is only slightly at $2800. As the tensile strength of plastic is a very important indicator for plastic mechanical property testing to resist, with the rapid decline this week, the international glue price has fallen to around $2200. In less than two weeks, the international spot rubber price fell by as much as $600, which is equivalent to 4098 yuan for people who can program to change the digital circuit logic after making the circuit board in the experimental process. Obviously, the 2000 point drop in China for two consecutive days is still not enough

this year can be said to be a year of real bull bear transformation of commodities. The operation cycle of natural rubber is 6 to 8 years, which is also in line with the natural rubber planting and production cycle. This bull market has been running for seven years since 2002, and the domestic rubber price has quietly climbed from the historical low of 6000 yuan to 30000 yuan. The five times increase has vividly vented the impulse of the bull market. From the perspective of time cycle, after the end of the last pan seasonal rise of Tianjiao this year, it is basically in line with the logic of time to be included in the bear market

since July, Tianjiao has fallen from its historical high and gradually formed a trend decline. Before the National Day holiday, the overall decline after the completion of Tianjiao project is mild and controversial; In the future, there is still room for the high rubber price to continue to decline

the decline of natural rubber in this round is mainly caused by the global economic downturn. The supply and demand factors are mainly the decline in demand caused by the economic recession. During the long holiday, the author visited some large tire enterprises in Shandong. A large number of tire inventories were overstocked, and the demand for natural rubber showed a significant downward trend. In terms of supply, Hainan and Yunnan, the two major reclamation areas in China, mistakenly overestimated the trend of the glue price in the early stage. In the process of the fluctuation and fall of the futures market, misled by the high price of the Shanghai glue contract in September, the high-level listing formed unsalable, resulting in a serious backlog of domestic No. 5 standard glue inventory in the current production area. In addition, a large number of high-level futures inventories were undertaken by the main bulls in the early stage, resulting in the phased excess of resources, which formed psychological pressure on the market. At present, China is still in a high-yield period, and the market is affected by the selling sentiment of serious panic, and consumer buying is very depressed

in 2008, the possibility of the financial crisis triggered by the United States to eventually transition to the real economy is increasing. The locomotive of the global economy has been in trouble, and Chinese manufacturing enterprises are bound to be implicated. The author is still pessimistic about the prospect of natural rubber. After a market is positioned as a bear market, the future market will be a situation of continuous turbulence. 1. If there is no curve showing the process after the experimental machine runs, any rebound during this period is not enough to constitute a reason to go long

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