The hottest natural rubber entered the stage of co

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Tianjiao: entering the stage of peak consumption season, the aftermarket oscillation rose

domestic Tianjiao has entered a phased peak consumption season

as the domestic power supply gap is expected to reach 23million kwh this year, many manufacturers have accelerated their production progress before the summer peak. According to statistics, the national tire output in the first quarter of 2005 was 66.54 million, an increase of 26.4% year-on-year; On the other hand, because China's GDP grew by 9.5% in the first quarter, the market is worried that the state will introduce measures to continue to strengthen macro-control, thereby increasing production, leading to the recent rising demand for natural rubber in the domestic market, which can be reflected in the accelerated delivery of stock from the exchange

according to the data released by Shanghai Futures Exchange on May 20, from April 22 to May 20, a month's time to adjust the magnification of the measurement amplifier, the stock of the exchange decreased by 24251 tons, the total stock fell sharply to less than 50000 tons, and 22465 tons of warehouse receipts were cancelled, indicating that most of the inventory went to the consumer market

in the spot market, due to the long-term hot weather and little rain in Hainan, although the rubber trees have been cut, the output is far lower than expected, and the inventory of Haikou rubber is small, especially the supply of No. 20 standard rubber and cigarette rubber is relatively tight. At present, the dry rubber traded in the trading center is the inventory rubber of last year. According to the Central Meteorological Observatory, Yunnan, Hainan and Guangxi are still experiencing high temperatures, which will delay the centralized listing of new rubber. Therefore, the market will accelerate the consumption of stored rubber and increase imports to fill the gap

according to Fuzhou Customs, Fujian Province imported 17300 tons of natural rubber in the first quarter of this year, with a year-on-year increase of 39.12%, and the average import price was US $1091.4. According to the analysis of Fuzhou Customs, the main reasons for the sustained and rapid growth of natural rubber imports are: first, consumer demand continues to be strong; Second, domestic supply is insufficient; Third, the designated management of natural rubber has been liberalized, and trade has become more liberal; Fourth, the price of synthetic rubber rose. According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, China has imported 450000 tons of natural rubber from January to April this year, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6%

the rubber price in the international market rebounded and strengthened

as of April 30, Japan's raw rubber inventory totaled 13995 tons, a decrease of 1687 tons from 15682 tons on March 31. The continuous reduction in inventory has driven the rise in the price of rubber in Tokyo. The Tokyo market rebounded after slightly testing the support of 136 yen during the May Day holiday. By Tuesday, the benchmark contract of Tokyo rubber had closed positive for four consecutive weeks, with an increase of 8.9%. At the same time, the sharp decline of the yen against the US dollar in the foreign exchange market also formed a strong support for Tokyo rubber

in the international spot market, the FOB quotation of Thailand's No. 3 cigarette glue remained at $1350 per ton, while Indonesia and Malaysia's No. 20 standard glue fluctuated in the range of $1220-1250. Since the price of synthetic rubber and natural rubber began to hang upside down in the second half of last year, the international rubber alliance Co., Ltd. (IRCO), a joint venture between Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, has been seeking to push up the price of natural rubber. At an International Rubber Conference held in Chiang Mai, Thailand in early May, Thai Prime Minister Thaksin said that he would try his best to promote the price of natural rubber to rise to more than 50 baht per kilogram, to 60 baht (US $1500), so as to reach the same level as synthetic rubber. He believed that it was easier to realize the comparison of data, and the current rubber price was at an "unhealthy level"

technically, Shanghai Jiaotong is overbought in the short term

with the gradual reduction of ru0507 contract positions and the increase of ru0508 contract positions, both long and short sides of the market have shifted their trading focus to the August contract. Take ru0508 as an example, it rebounded after falling from 14290 yuan on March 17 to 12575 yuan on April 26. On Tuesday, the foam granulator reached 0.5 of the fall range, that is, 13432 yuan. The first rebound target has been in place. According to the total position of Tianjiao, which is only more than 20000 hands at present, the volume of futures prices to reach a new level is obviously insufficient. It is expected that the short-term will fall back and be ready to correct the short-term index of overbought

in conclusion, driven by the continuous dry weather, a significant reduction in inventory, strong spot prices, strong consumer demand and other factors, domestic Tianjiao will continue to perform the anti seasonal rising market, but there are still iterations before the effective amplification of positions, and it is expected that the market will shake up in the future

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