The hottest lie is exposed. Waste paper is not lac

When the lie is exposed, there is actually no shortage of waste paper

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core tip: looking back at the rise in the price of industrial base paper since China's fully open market economy in 1992, it seems that every time there is a phantom - the shortage of raw materials! Recently, the import of foreign waste will be completely banned, and the shortage of raw materials for papermaking is rampant again

in fact, these are the panic psychology formed by papermaking and paper trade and other stakeholders who have experienced the era of material shortage, so as to push up the price of paper and harvest a batch of intelligence tax. Because, since human beings entered the market economy, there has never been a shortage of goods, not to mention when demand continues to shrink and other alternative fibers appear one after another

in order to verify whether there is a shortage of raw materials for papermaking, we collected the import of waste, base paper, pulp and waste pulp in 2019. The results do not support the view that base paper is facing a shortage

analysis on the import of foreign waste in 2019

on December 3, the solid waste and chemicals management technology center of the Ministry of Environmental Protection announced the details of the 15th batch of products subject to import restrictions, of which the total amount of waste paper approved was 10700. So far, the approval and publicity of the import waste paper quota may have been completely completed. In summary, 15 batches of imported waste paper were approved in 2019, involving 79 paper enterprises, with a total approved amount of 10.7519 million tons, a decrease of 1.866 million tons from the total amount in 2018

quarterly, the approval quota from the first quarter to the fourth quarter of 2019 accounted for 51.50%, 25.13%, 19.10% and 4.27% respectively. Among them, the approval quota in the first quarter has accounted for about half of the approval quota of the whole year. The batch obtained in the second and third quarters has relatively little change, and the decrease is particularly obvious in the fourth quarter

from the perspective of approved enterprises, nine dragons, Levin and Shanying are still the three largest paper enterprises with the largest approved amount in China. The approved amount in 2019 was 31%, 14% and 13% respectively, accounting for 58% in total, and the other 64 paper enterprises accounted for 42% in total. In 2018, nine dragons, Liwen and Shanying accounted for 64% of the approved quota. The proportion of the three major paper enterprises this year decreased by 8 percentage points compared with that of last year

2019, according to the statistics of the proportion of imported waste paper, it is still difficult for waste cardboard, waste newspapers and miscellaneous paper, and grade 2 factories to transfer costs to customers, with ink waste paper accounting for 76%, 20% and 4% respectively. Compared with 2018, there is no significant change in this situation, and waste cardboard is still the main body of imported waste paper

from the perspective of countries and regions that import waste paper, the United States, Europe and Japan are still the three main sources of waste imports from outside China. In 2019, it accounted for 42%, 23% and 16% respectively, and other regions accounted for 19%

in terms of the average price of foreign waste, in 2019, due to the restrictions of the national foreign waste policy, the approval quota and import volume were significantly reduced. At the same time, due to the poor domestic market, the price of domestic waste fluctuated and fell. Taking the imported waste cardboard as an example, the price fell all the way from the annual peak of 261.80 US dollars/ton in January to 145.04 US dollars/ton in October. The average import price may still decline due to the weaker performance of the waste Market in November and December

imported base paper in 2019

reference guanyantianxia released the "2019 China corrugated base paper industry analysis report - industry operation situation and development prospects forecast"

according to the customs data, China had imported 568300 tons of waste pulp by the end of September this year, the same as last year Before the experiment, please browse the standard period, with an increase of 231.23% and a cumulative increase of 396000 tons. Entering the third quarter, China's import of waste pulp increased significantly

statistical table of the sources of China's imported waste pulp in 2019

among them, Taiwan Penghu Jinma customs zone, the United States, Laos and Vietnam are the main import sources

waste paper pulp imported in 2019

overall, the total amount of waste paper imported in 2019 decreased by 1.866 million tons compared with 2018. However, compared with 2018, the net increase of imported base paper was 140000 tons, the net increase of imported pulp was 1.77 million tons, and the net increase of imported waste pulp was 396000 tons, a total increase of 2.306 million tons, completely covering the gap in the approval of imported waste paper this year

the total amount of imported waste paper since 2016 is as follows: 28 million tons in 2016, 25.68 million tons in 2017, 12.61 million tons in 2018, and 10.75 million tons in 2019. Compared with the previous year, its net decrease in 2018 was 13.07 million tons, which can be described as a cliff fall. However, throughout 2018, there was not a shortage of raw materials, but a downturn in paper prices that lasted almost a whole year. Why

Bao believes that there are two reasons for the reduction of 13.07 million tons of waste paper outside China in 2018, but there is no shortage of raw materials: first, the soaring of national waste paper in 2017 has greatly increased the national waste recovery rate, making up for the gap in foreign waste. Second, the demand for industrial base paper fell significantly in 2018, and we expect the decline to be between%

in 2019, which is about to end, various signs show that the demand for industrial base paper is still declining, and the range may not be smaller than that in 2018. If this is the case, the raw materials for papermaking are actually surplus, which can even be called a serious surplus

according to the requirements of national policies, the actual import volume of imported waste paper in 2020 may be about 5million tons, but we don't have to worry at all. The extra papermaking raw materials in 2019 are enough to cover a mere 575 tons of shrinkage after 2020. Looking forward to 2020, with the rise of prices and the reduction of people's income, the demand for industrial base paper will still show a downward trend

therefore, in the coming years, we will not see a shortage of papermaking raw materials, but a surplus